Weak dollar and mostly positive economic data couldn’t push the broad market through to higher ground. Is this the testing point for the bounce off the lows? Yes, the resistance here will prove to be a test over the next couple of days. Where we go from here is important short term. A retest of the lows from February will keep the markets well withing the current trading range. That isn’t bad necessarily, just confirms the comments on this being a traders market. If we test the high and move beyond we reconnect with the uptrend from the March 2009 low. Either way we have to patient as this progresses.

The dollar moved below the 80 mark on the index as it struggled against the basket of currency. The euro bounced on the news from Greece and the pound bounced from the oversold conditions created by speculation in the UK. They may both move lower in time, but the rush in liquidating them is overdone short term. I could see the dollar consolidate in a short term trading range (79.60-81.30) before making a commitment in either direction.If it continues lower it will not be a positive indicator for the US economic outlook.

Interesting to note that oil gained 1.3% as the inventory data rose considerably. The weaker dollar aided the move, but watch as this should move to the top of the current range and hit against significant resistance. The economic outlook will need to improve considerably to take the price through resistance. I would tighten stops and protect against the reversal towards the bottom of the range.

Is gold out of the doldrums? It appears to be heading higher with the break above resistance the last two days. The interest in gold has risen along with the market indexes. This was the topic on the Chart of the Day and if you missed it, take time to look at the potential play opportunity.

ISM Services data was positive hitting 53 and showing nice expansion. I liked the report and it confirms the modest growth in the economy. If investors are expecting more then we will have trouble moving forward because modest is what the economy is geared up for. We have put no significant stimulus in place to accelerate growth thus modest growth is good for now.

Greece is planning an austerity program, but the devil in the details! They announced a new 10 year bond offering to add to their debt? Interesting approach to the issue, but again the devil is in the details. This is just part of the problem in Europe and there will be more issues potentially as we progress forward. For now I would proceed with extreme caution in this region of investing.

Jobless claims are out this morning and this has been a torn in the markets side of late. I don’t expect any sudden changes as the layoff announcements are on the rise again. The data is a sign we are not completely out of the woods yet. The Jobs Report for February is Friday and all eyes will be on the data. The expectations are -90k jobs. It could be higher based on the jobless claims. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher as well to 9.8%.

When you add it all up the total picture is fair to partly cloudy. There are issues hanging over the markets which will have to be dealt with in time. There are others issues being paraded as doom and gloom, but have no real proof of happening. Then there are the financial networks which parade analyst on to paint the picture of solid growth over the next two years. Whatever the prognostication the key is sound money and risk management every day. No one knows for sure what will happen only that something will happen. If enough people believe, it will become a reality at some point. Stay focused on your money and your goals. Manage your money based on what you want and where you are going.

Have a great day investing.